Placid October makes way for 'Carpe Diem' Christmas
Retail research group SPSL predicts a ‘carpe diem’ Christmas for retailers this year - when they must invite consumers to ‘seize the day’ with limited-time and other such creative offers and grab sales whenever and however they can.
The reason is clear - the Retail Traffic Index ™ (RTI™) for October shows that the number of shoppers entering UK retail outlets is still well down on 2005. The RTI dropped by 1.0% against the previous month and by 2.4% versus October 2005. This compares to year-on-year falls of 3.6% and 3.0% in September and August respectively.
Dr. Tim Denison, Director of Knowledge Management at SPSL and leading retail psychologist comments; “There has been no let up in the underlying trend in October. Shopper numbers in the non-food sector remain depressed, down this month by 2.4% on last year and with no likelihood of relative improvement this side of Christmas. In fact, shopper numbers stood at their lowest October level for eight years, piling yet more pressure on retailers.
“Half term week was particularly disappointing with the RTI showing a year-on-year fall of 3.5%. Even mid-season sales have failed to inject much pace into patronage. In a time of mounting stress in the sector, the situation is likely to get worse on Thursday when the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England is expected to hand out bad news to the credit-stretched.
“The mild autumn certainly hasn’t helped most retailers either, though garden centres and DIY sheds have enjoyed a late boost in trade. In contrast to some other parts of the economy, retailing is enduring unfamiliar and challenging times. Demand is slowing, the cost base is rising and margins are being squeezed.
“In fact, for some retailers, their key aspiration this Christmas will simply to still be trading in the New Year. According to a recent PWC survey, retail insolvencies rose by 12.1% in the third quarter against the same period last year and are rising at 20% per annum. With rents due at the end of December and rising more quickly than retail prices, a strong performance this Christmas is imperative.
“Despite this gloom though, any retailer that can capture a larger share of business during the massive demand surge presented by Christmas should not only survive, but prosper. Within the next week, the best will be launching simply irresistible marketing campaigns and promotions in order to kick start seasonal spending by the ever-more cautious and canny consumer.
“With measurably less in their pockets this year, shoppers will hold a watching brief, ready to swoop and spend only when presented with unbeatable ‘It’s now or never’ (INOB) opportunities such as very limited time offers, even ones lasting just an hour. Be assured we are heading for a ‘carpe diem’ Christmas and those retailers with the right planning and flexibility, the right stock, the right prices and most importantly the right tactics will take market share and profits.”
source: - www.theretailbulletin.co.uk
